Oscars Predictions 2024
Bryan’s Thoughts and Predictions
Best Costume Design:
Should Win: Poor Things – I mean. These garments reference a time period while also feeling out of time. They also draw attention to themselves in an integral way to the story – why is Bella wearing outfits the way she wears them, and why do we think it’s strange? They are a key part of the film.
Will win: often this turns into an award for MOST costumes (either in terms of looks or in shear terms of fabric yardage. This puts Poor Things out in front, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Barbie steals it, simply because clothing is such an integral part of the Barbie brand and experience.
Best Original Song:
Will and Should Win: I’m Just Ken – it seems like the Billie Eilish song has been picking up more awards, but we all know that the Ken number is the highlight of the movie – so I hope the Academy awards it properly. Also, shoutout to Diane Warren – l.e.g.e.n.d. – for continuing to pick up noms, even if it is for a song from “Flamin’ Hot.”
Best Cinematography:
Will win: Oppenheimer – the Oppy steamroller will eat this one.
Should Win: Poor Things – the colors (caught on ektachrome film stock), the peep-hole wide-lens – the cinematography is outlandish in a way that reflects the world and character of the film.
Should be here: Maria von Hausswolff – Godland – not just for the stunning imagery of the Icelandic landscape, but for the patient long-shots that intently burrow into the atmosphere and mindsets of the characters.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: this one is tricky! Anatomy of a Fall has lots of noms, but they can’t award it in international feature, so this might be the best place for it to take an award. But people also love Past Lives (I did not), and the same chance to laud it ends here. There’s even an argument for The Holdovers if it comes on strong at the end. I’d stick with Fall.
Should win: Samy Burch – May December – so astute, tight, laser-sharp, funny, tonally balanced.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Robert Downey Jr??? – he keeps winning awards for a perfectly OK performance in the weakest part of Nolan’s film. I don’t get it, unless it comes down to love from the industry (a la Jamie Lee Curtis last year).
Should win: Ryan Gosling – an integral counterbalance in that movie, and so funny. Also shoutout to Mark Ruffalo for being funny and hot in a sweaty kind of way.
Should be here: Charles Melton – May December – the center of the film around which Moore and Portman dance. Subtle, devastating work.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Da’vine Joy Randolph – I haven’t seen The Holdovers, but I adore Randolph (see how she makes the most out of two tiny scenes in Kajillionaire), so her certain win is welcome by me.
Should be here: Hong Chau – Showing Up – focused, clear, strong, yet opaque - a great foil to Michelle Williams
Best Actor:
Will win: A two-way race between Murphy and Giamatti – I don’t think Murphy gives a whole lot (or has much to work with), but if the Oppy love is strong he could ride along with it. And Giamatti feels overdue ever since the Sideways snub, so I think he has the edge.
Should be here: Franz Rogowski – Passages – for being the most alluring narcissist you love to hate-watch since Daniel Day Lewis in Phantom Thread. A close second for villains-as-leads goes to Elliot Crosset Hove in Godland. I love when a lead character goes through a whole story and doesn’t change one bit. That’s life y’all.
Best Actress:
Will Win: Lily Gladstone – the heart and soul of this movie. A clear, steady presence – even when her physical presence in the latter half of the film is diminished. And we’ve loved her since Certain Women.
Should Win: Emma Stone – a highly calibrated yet reckless, fearless tour-de-force. Astounding work – it feels like Stone is free from any inhibitions.
Should be here:
Michelle Williams – Showing Up – sour, funny as hell
Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One – defiant, complex, fearless
Natalie Portman – May December – the most Natalie-Portman performance, in the best way
Best Film:
Will Win: Oppenheimer – the big name Nolan, the bio-pic cred, the “important” subject matter. Shame it’s not very good.
Should Win: Poor Things – a huge swing, a joyous act of creation
Should be here:
Showing Up – clear, observant, kind, perceptive about the act of making, creation, and the need for solitary work and collective support
May December – as much about the act of making (and how creation is tied to destruction) as Showing Up, but rather than clay and paint the materials are people’s lives.
Makenna’s Thoughts and Predictions
I’m a movie enjoyer, but not enough of an Oscars nerd to know the statistical odds of who will win which category based on their performance in other awards shows and/or the unknowable sorcery of Academy voters’ moods… so I’m just going to point out who I think should win, and who I think deserves to be in the category that I feel was left out!
Best Costume Design: Poor Things
The impact of this movie’s costuming can be best illustrated by my search history upon leaving the theater: 10+ Google shopping tabs full of historical reenactment leg-of-mutton sleeve blouses. The costuming not only harmonizes with the film’s fantasmagoric production design, but fully expresses the growth and desires of our main character. It was perfect.
Best Original Song: I’m Just Ken
Perfectly stupid and memorable for such a delightful cultural moment. I’m so glad it’s getting recognition in the first place, and pretty much the first time I’ve actually cared about the Best Original Song category.
Best Cinematography: Poor Things
Killers was stunning, and Oppenheimer felt epic and appropriately explosive, but what Lanthimos & Ryan are doing with these crazy fisheye shots and nauseatingly vivid colors is actively changing the game. The way this movie entered my eyeballs felt fresh, awe-inspiring, and so intentional given the movie’s narrative themes and perspective.
Should be here: Fallen Leaves
Visually my second favorite of the year! The way this movie was lit and shot felt so warm and lived-in, yet also dramatic and flattened like a stage production. I wish every movie had this much primary color blocking.
Best Original Screenplay: May December
I’m being biased because this movie is getting ZERO OTHER NOMINATIONS… but it truly felt like one of the sharpest, most uniquely balanced scripts I’ve seen in a while. Somehow it maintains its devastating sincerity while also being Mean-Girls-level quotable? And comedic?
Best Supporting Actor: WRITE IN! Charles Melton
I love you Ryan Gosling, love you Mark Ruffalo, both absolute scene stealers in their respective movies, and I’d be happy if either won. But Charles Melton was one of the best, if not THE best male performance I saw this year. There are decades of arrested development telegraphed onto his body that is simply heart wrenching to watch. Without the counterweight of his performance the whole movie would have fallen off the tightrope. The MOST egregious Academy Snub this year, I’m taking it personally!
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
The Holdovers was such a likable and cozy movie, and Randolph anchors it in a melancholy that keeps it from falling over the edge into saccharine. She deserves it!
Should be here: Natalie Portman
She brings such a concealed predatory evil to May December that didn’t even fully hit me until after the movie was over. If Charles Melton’s character is a balancing counterweight, her character is the linchpin that locks in the moral of this story.
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti
I’ll be honest, I don’t have that strong of an opinion on this category, I’m pretty sure Cillian Murphy will win for the official Big Oscar Movie, but I liked Paul Giamatti’s performance better!
Should be here: Zac Efron
Zac really surprised me, and I’m also a little bitter that Iron Claw isn’t getting any nods. But his performance was so restrained, so subdued, and so heartbroken in masterful contrast to his monstrous He-Man physicality. More people need to be talking about him!
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone
Easily the hardest choice of all these categories. As far as technical skill goes, it’s a toss up between Sandra Hüller, Emma Stone, and Lily Gladstone (and Margot Robbie’s absence tbh). But given the importance of the story she tells, the sheer screen presence and magnetism of her face, and the history her win would make, it will and should be Lily.
Best Picture: Poor Things
Swings big, hits a home run, takes a victory lap, this felt like it was created in a lab to leave me full-body delighted. One of the more satisfying, wholesome endings I’ve seen all year, yet never loses its Lanthimosian disturbing qualities. It’s actively rewriting the rules of what movies should look and sound like, it bends and blends genres, and gets better the deeper you bite into it. 10/10